Back to briefings

Iran • United States • Gulf

Iran declares Hormuz closed, strikes US targets in five countries as "Islamabad MoU" collapses

3 min read

Iran hit US-linked targets across **five countries** (Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Oman) over the past 24 hours, its widest regional strike set to date, and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, while CENTCOM ran two large waves against southern Iran hitting roughly 300 points across about 17 cities. The 60-day "Islamabad MoU" is now dead in all but name, with both sides locked into a "no-war, no-peace" attrition centred on Hormuz. Brent rose about 3.5% intraday.

How wide did Iran's retaliation go?

  • Cross-bloc corroborated: **Jordan** (Prince Hassan airbase) confirmed by the Jordanian Army, 3 ballistic missiles with satellite-visible runway and MQ-9 hangar damage; **Kuwait** MoD confirmed 3 border posts and a Kuwait Oil Co. offshore rig hit, one worker injured.
  • Impacts at **Qatar** (Al-Udeid), **Bahrain** (5th Fleet HQ warehouse) and **Oman** (Duqm/Musandam) backed by low-res satellite imagery; Oman summoned Iran's ambassador.
  • Iranian MoFA (Baghaei) framed strikes as lawful self-defence and warned Gulf hosts of US forces they could become "legitimate targets."

What did the US strike, and is a bigger wave coming?

  • First wave (~midday) confirmed by CENTCOM and IRIB across the southern coast; late-night wave (~00:30 Tehran) far larger, pushing inland into Khuzestan and Markazi/Khondab.
  • Khuzestan deputy governor Hayati confirmed strikes on multiple towns but explicitly denied Ahvaz airport was hit; NYT quoted a US official warning of a "bigger wave."

Is Hormuz actually closed?

  • Iran's PGSA and IRGC say transit is closed; CENTCOM and Trump personally ("it's open… don't ask about it") insist otherwise.
  • CNN/MarineTraffic and Bloomberg/JMIC data show traffic collapsed to near-nil: de facto disruption is real regardless of the rhetorical fight.

What is contested (do not treat as fact)?

  • "3 US soldiers killed in Kuwait" (later "12 casualties" via al-Alam/Reuters-attributed): CENTCOM explicitly denied any US deaths.
  • HIMARS/ATACMS launches from Gulf states into Iran; Bushehr and Arak nuclear "hits" (denied by AEOI and Bushehr deputy governor); citywide Ahvaz blackout (localised substation only). Standing pattern of Khuzestan over-claiming.
  • IRGC "evacuation warning" to Gulf residents appears to originate from Iraqi/Axis larp channels, per MES, not official.

Where does the nuclear/diplomatic track stand?

  • MoFA says the US "openly violated almost all" of the MoU 25 days after signing; Muscat talks produced nothing. Trump's claim of a "perfect deal, no nuclear" agreed Saturday is called "pure lies" by Iran.
  • Ex-CENTCOM McKenzie floated seizing Kharg Island as leverage (single-source). Larijani pushes Majlis legislation on Hormuz and a pre-set "assassination response."

The wildcards:

  • WSJ (via Sabreen) reports US officials found Israeli intel on an Iranian plot to kill Trump "not fully credible"; Channel-12 claims a Western service intercepted prep to hit Trump in Turkey. Contested, interested parties on all sides.
  • Sen. Lindsey Graham died (71, aortic dissection per DC ME preliminary); Axis/Dugin conspiracies are propaganda with no evidence. Katz ordered IDF to prep an independent Iran operation; N12 assesses Iran currently does not intend to strike Israel directly.

What to watch next (24-72h):

  • The promised "bigger" US wave, and whether it hits actual energy/nuclear infrastructure versus comms towers and outskirts: the escalation tripwire.
  • Hormuz tanker throughput (Windward/MarineTraffic/JMIC) and any war-risk premium moves.
  • Iraqi PM al-Zaydi in Washington (Mon): MoU signings and Islamic Resistance in Iraq reaction.
  • Any Iranian strike toward Israel breaking the N12-assessed restraint.
  • Mojtaba Khamenei's first public appearance (Tue) and any European démarches over the "revenge list."