The 60-day Islamabad memorandum of understanding expired at 00:00Z on 17 August with no extension, framework or announced talks to replace it, as Hormuz shipping collapsed to zero cargo transits on Sunday. Israeli Channels 13 and 15 separately conceded the period produced "not even preliminary clauses." Simultaneously, Israel killed a second named Hezbollah commander and is preparing for "several days of fighting" in Lebanon, per Channel 12. Gaza was the sole track moving toward de-escalation.
How dead is the Iran track?
- Fox News (via Iran International) reported expiry with "little progress"; two US officials told Channel 15 it "is not supposed to lead to a fundamental change on the ground." Iranian channels noted both sides had already exited days ago. Cross-bloc corroborated on expiry; contested on consequences.
- Army C-in-C Amir Hatami (on record, IRIB/Fars/Mehr) offered a $30,000 bounty for killing or capturing a US soldier, double for women, and declared America "expelled" from the Gulf and Hormuz. Declaratory, not operational.
- Parliament's National Security Committee approved one article of a bill barring Israeli-linked vessels from the Gulf. Not law; chairman Azizi said implementation awaits final passage.
What is the day's best-sourced revelation?
- Axios (two sources) reported DNI Tulsi Gabbard asked KRG President Nechirvan Barzani in mid-May to open a covert channel to the IRGC, doubting Araghchi/Qalibaf spoke for the Guards. On 14 May an IRGC official brought an encrypted phone to Erbil; Gen. Ahmad Vahidi said the IRGC backed a negotiated solution. Tehran declined a follow-up round over assassination fears.
- KRG spokesman Dlshad Shahab confirmed on record to Iran International that Barzani carries messages.
Which numbers are non-partisan?
- Reuters, citing Kpler: 5 transits Saturday, none Sunday, versus 31 the prior weekend. UKMTO/JMIC logged three vessels struck in 72 hours; no injuries, all continued voyage.
- CNBC, citing DoE data: US SPR fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since the early 1980s. Bloomberg reported oil rising; carry Friday's Brent at $88.52.
- Counterpoint: Iranian FX and gold softened (USD ~186,500 toman, minus 500) and the TSE hit a record 5.766m.
How close is Lebanon to a ground operation?
- The IDF said it killed Abu Hassan Alaa of Hezbollah's Badr unit in Deir al-Zahrani, linking him to explosive-drone launches and the Ali al-Taher attack. Israeli-source, uncontested so far.
- Channel 12 cited a security source on readiness for "several days of fighting" and dozens of Hezbollah fighters trapped underground; one Israeli source claimed a ground operation risks "direct Iranian intervention." Single-source, treat cautiously.
- Walla, citing a senior military official, corroborated Channel 13's Drucker sequence: Hezbollah "exposed our movements" first, contradicting the government's framing. Lebanese MoH: 4,346 killed since 2 March.
What advanced in Gaza?
- Kushner met Khalil al-Hayya's delegation in Cairo alongside Mladenov, Blair and Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish mediators. Cross-bloc corroborated (Axios, Reuters, Al Arabiya, Al Jazeera, Hamas).
- Hamas formally accepted the phase-two roadmap, conditioned on Israeli phase-one implementation, and praised Trump. Per Ravid's source, Hamas leaders affirmed disarmament; Kushner rejected merely "storing" weapons.
- Eight Arab/Islamic FMs condemned Israel's rejection of the roadmap.
What to watch next (24-72 hours)
- Kushner-Netanyahu meeting Monday: does Israel accept the roadmap Hamas accepted?
- Ali al-Taher: northern Israel resident notifications, Commando/Yahalom movement, trapped-fighter rescue attempt.
- First post-expiry US action: Bessent's announced-but-unexecuted sanctions package, Treasury designations, or resumed talks via Oman/Qatar/Barzani.
- Hormuz transit counts Monday-Wednesday (Kpler/UKMTO): a second zero day is a step-change; 15-30 signals quiet functioning.
- Jazan: whether Saudi Civil Defence's alert near the Aramco refinery was a one-off or a sustained Yemeni campaign.
- Iran's petrol decision (10-15 days out) and article-by-article voting on the infiltration bill.