New SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei used a marathon state-TV interview to declare "the Strait of Hormuz is closed, despite American claims, and will not open until the US corrects its behaviour," inverting the MoU's sequencing so Washington performs first. He threatened that any Gulf state joining the US "economic war" will be treated as an enemy, with "not a single drop of oil" leaving the Gulf. It lands 48 hours before Treasury Secretary Bessent's Monday sanctions tranche.
How many ships are actually transiting Hormuz?
- Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US military moved over 15m bbl Tuesday, roughly 20m bpd including pipelines, and a 7-day average above 8m bpd "thanks to US Navy" (cross-bloc). Analyst @gbrew24 notes US officials briefed 10m bpd to Axios last week and Wright himself said 9m: a steady downward revision.
- Axios/Ravid, citing three US officials, reported ~40 tankers/~16m bbl via the southern Omani corridor Friday night; Trump reposted "Hormuz is US territory" and claimed over 1,000 ships escorted. @MenchOsint says satellite imagery confirms only two tankers, both AIS-off, calling the Axios figure "completely false" (single analyst, but the only imagery-grounded claim).
- UKMTO/CNN: 103 in/89 out over the week (+27% w/w), still ~20% of pre-war; 4 ships Thursday, no large crude or LNG; cumulative flows since 28 Feb at ~4% of pre-conflict; 14 of 16 incidents on the southern route. Fars, citing Kpler: 14 tankers, transits down from ~160 to under 10. Contested; do not trade on either.
- Cross-bloc corroborated: Iran granted passage to Iraqi tankers at Baghdad's request (IRNA). Rezaei said an Iran-Oman "middle route" exists "on paper only." Iranian-aligned channels claimed anti-ship missile fire near 18:00Z: unverified, no imagery.
What is coming Monday?
- Reuters (cross-bloc): the tranche targets Iran and possibly major partners including China, which buys over 80% of Iranian exports; Bessent calls them "the toughest in history."
- Spokesman Baghaei called secondary sanctions "extraterritorial US sovereignty," citing UN Charter Art. 2(1) and the ICJ *Nicaragua* ruling.
- Pezeshkian said all SNSC members judged the MoU "the best agreement." Hardliner Nabavian alleged it requires dilution of the entire enriched stockpile (60/20/5/3/1%) and US consent for reactors, desalination and radiopharmaceuticals: single-source, unverified, the most specific public account yet.
Where is the Iranian split visible?
- Rezaei threatened "all US oil and economic companies in the region," claimed ~1,200 idled tankers and ~70m bbl exported in two months (unverifiable), and said Netanyahu proposed a six-month blockade to Trump, who agreed to try two or three months (single-source).
- He praised Mojtaba Khamenei as running the country "very powerfully." Iran International reads a Rezaei/Vahidi/Taeb vs Pezeshkian/Ghalibaf rift.
- Araghchi phoned Egypt's Abdelatty and Pakistan's Asim Munir; Al Jazeera's Ali Hashem says Munir may return to Tehran "in a day or two" (single-source).
What else moved?
- No fresh Brent print; last reliable level ~$94. CBI confirmed $7.5bn oil proceeds deposited; dollar ~190,000-190,800 toman. Qatar (FT): spending -30%, LNG exports -54%, IMF forecasting -8.6% GDP.
- Lebanon: strikes across ~15 localities including Ali al-Taher (white phosphorus per Al-Akhbar); MoH cumulative 8,915 killed, 30,543 wounded; Salam confirms no negotiation date.
- Barrack-Katz clash went public over Abu al-Duhur; Sa'ar: no escalation, but no Turkish bases in Syria.
What to watch next (24-72 hours)
- Whether Monday's tranche names Chinese, UAE or Turkish entities, and Beijing's response.
- Any Iranian interference with Saudi, Emirati or Qatari-linked hulls.
- Munir's possible Tehran visit and Omani re-engagement on the "middle route."
- The Iranian ambassador's Beirut visa expiry Monday.
- Israeli ground movement at Beit Yahoun/Houshin toward Ali al-Taher.