US seeks broader Hormuz and nuclear deal as Trump threatens Pickaxe Mountain
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Washington is now pursuing a comprehensive framework covering both the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear file, the FT reported citing diplomatic sources, effectively burying the June Islamabad MoU, with Oman and Qatar building the new architecture. The diplomacy runs against a parallel escalation track: a US/E3 IAEA Board resolution referring Iran to the Security Council next week, new Treasury sanctions on a Turkish bank, and Trump's threat to strike Natanz-adjacent "Pickaxe Mountain" (Kuh-e Kolang) "very soon."
What changed diplomatically?
The FT item, cross-carried by Gulf, Iranian and Israeli-aligned outlets, says Washington told mediators it wants Hormuz open regardless of any Tehran-Muscat arrangement, the precise point Iran will not concede.
Iran's asks, via Iran International (framing caution advised): full lifting of the naval blockade, resumed oil-sale exemptions, frozen-asset access.
In Vienna, US and E3 are pushing a Board resolution reporting Iran's non-proliferation violations to the UNSC (cross-bloc corroborated, Reuters). WSJ's Laurence Norman notes Russian/Chinese vetoes make enforcement near-impossible; this is leverage-building.
Is Hormuz closing?
Reuters shipping data: 4 tanker transits Thursday, down from ~9, against a ~15/day ten-day average (cross-bloc corroborated; tanker-only count).
@MenchOsint (single-source, specific) logged Turkish-owned MERCAN turning back mid-crossing, and Qatari LPG carrier AL GHASHAMIYA and chemical tanker SERENLY reversing after apparent IRGC Navy warning.
@Middle_East_Spectator assesses a third anti-ship ballistic missile launch from Sirik and a shift toward striking stationary ship-to-ship transfers: single analytical source, echoed not corroborated.
Did Iran strike Jordan?
Assess as not occurred or trivial. Axios/Barak Ravid cited a senior US official denying attacks on US bases in Jordan; Iranian state TV twice noted no Khatam al-Anbiya statement had been issued (17:51Z, 20:00Z).
Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akrami-nia announced a doctrinal shift to pre-emptive operations "wherever we perceive a threat," claiming four US bases in three countries hit. Capability claims unverified; the doctrine is the item.
How hard is the economic squeeze?
Brent ~$95-96; US crude settled $91.48; US diesel hit a record $5.85/gallon (AAA, cross-bloc corroborated).
Treasury sanctioned Turkey's Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi and two subsidiaries; @gbrew24 notes the bank holds only ~$34m in assets, symbolic reach into NATO banking.
Bessent claimed zero Iranian exports for six weeks and promised action Tuesday 8 September; his "EU officially joined" claim is now contested after an EU spokesperson twice declined to confirm to Reuters. Downgrade to claimed-and-unconfirmed.
What broke in Lebanon?
Israel struck Ain al-Tineh/Jabbour in the Western Bekaa, reportedly the first Bekaa strike since the framework agreement, after an IDF claim of an intercepted Hezbollah drone. Health Ministry toll: 3 killed, 23 wounded, including six Al-Risala Scouts paramedics.
Hours earlier, ICRC facilitated release of five detainees; the US Embassy called it a "positive step" ahead of the next Rome round.
Ali al-Taher remains contested: Katz claims completed capture; BBC Persian's Nafiseh Kohnavard says no independent confirmation and no tunnel imagery. Hezbollah has issued no authoritative account.
What to watch next (24-72 hours)
Whether the IAEA resolution tables and passes, and Iranian access curtailment.
Bessent's 8 September action: Chinese or Gulf banks, or another $34m institution.
Israeli cabinet approval to demolish the Ali al-Taher tunnel network, the likeliest escalation trigger.
A next Rome round date, testing whether the channel survives the Bekaa strikes.
Whether transits stabilise near 4/day, implying effective closure.
Yemen: 80+ killed since Thursday (AFP); still no Red Sea shipping incident.