Iran publishes terms of Hormuz corridor as Bahrain boycotts Oman meeting
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Iranian state outlets published what they describe as agreed technical terms for an Iran-Oman navigation corridor: routed entirely through Iranian territorial waters, governed by Iranian regulations, with the US-favoured southern route closed. It landed 48 hours before Monday's Oman meeting and as Bahrain's FM publicly refused to attend any ministerial including Iran. Reuters' senior Iranian source simultaneously deflated expectations: the meeting is Omani-convened, will not reopen the strait, and Tehran's ask is transit fees.
What is actually on the table in Muscat?
Mehr/Tasnim (Iranian state, single-bloc, internally consistent) report a September Iran-Oman technical deal: Iranian-regulated transit, southern route closed, Iraq and Gulf states "briefed, not parties," strait shut until Iran's seven conditions to Washington are met.
This contradicts Pezeshkian's own framing to India Today that Arab FMs would attend and the deal would be registered with the IMO. The head-of-state/technical-leak gap is itself the signal.
Bahrain (cross-bloc: Al Arabiya, LBCI, ynet) demands any regime rest on UNCLOS 1982 via the IMO with non-discriminatory GCC passage, a direct rejection of a fee-charging Iranian corridor. A single-source claim that Oman invoked Article 5 of the Islamabad MoU is unconfirmed.
Is anything moving through the strait?
TankerTrackers and Fars both counted a single AIS-visible tanker Saturday, the China-owned *Lisa*. CENTCOM says it has redirected 100 commercial ships in 60 days under "Steel Wall."
UKMTO confirmed a Panama-flagged tanker hit by missile and disabled in the southern corridor (23:36Z), the first verified hull there, on the route Tehran calls "closed."
FT reports US air-defence cover narrowed to two fixed daily windows on cost grounds (~$25-75k/flight hour); one in-report claim of 2 US vessels and 8 tankers hit this week is single-source. Trump's Dublin claims (111 missiles at a carrier, all mines removed) are unverifiable and contradicted by traffic counts.
How far has the Saudi front widened?
Saree confirmed a ballistic-missile/drone strike with "direct hits" on Sharurah base and claimed 129 Saudi airstrikes in 48h. Saudi Civil Defence confirmed a projectile at Al-Tuwal, Jazan, injuring two.
OSINT imagery (narrow sourcing) shows 6 tanks destroyed, 8 damaged at Aramco's Abha bulk plant; not Aramco-confirmed. CNN reported PLC rosters at Mocha at ~20% real strength.
Trump claimed Houthi outreach to Washington; Hizam al-Asad denied contact outright. Weight the denial.
Where does Iraq stand three days on?
Baghdad closed Shalamcheh, Chazabeh/Zurbatiya and Al-Sheeb and sealed Maysan's Al-Tayeb; Fars and Tasnim note Mehran and Khosravi remain open. Fifteen drone launch platforms were seized across the south.
PM al-Zaidi sacked the Maysan operations commander and approved Iran's request for a joint investigation. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied responsibility; no faction has claimed the attack.
What else hardened?
MP Hajji-Deliqani urged nuclear tests "as soon as possible"; a three-urgency NPT withdrawal bill reportedly has its signatures. WSJ reports Iran obtained Chinese imagery of Muwaffaq Salti AB before the 17 July attack; Beijing denies.
Aoun: "No new negotiations with Israel at the moment." State Department confirms Rome slips to October; ambassadors meet in Washington next week.
What to watch next (24-72 hours)
Oman attendance (Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq), any signed text, IMO filing, and whether transit fees surface publicly.
UKMTO follow-up and whether a second hull is hit inside the two narrowed escort windows.
Output of the joint Iran-Iraq drone probe and whether Shalamcheh/Al-Tayeb reopen before 30 September.
Majlis floor action on NPT withdrawal; Eslami at the IAEA General Conference.
Saudi decision point: independent operation, Peninsula Shield activation, or further Aramco tankage losses.