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Iran • United States • Gulf • Lebanon • Israel

Cross-bloc data shows US-backed Hormuz lane abandoned; Iran formalizes service fees

18 min read

Cross-bloc maritime data from Bloomberg, Kepler and Windward show the US-backed Oman-hugging lane in the Strait of Hormuz has been essentially abandoned, with only one vessel using it out of 19 transits on Saturday, as Iran formalises plans to charge "service fees" for passage after the 60-day MoU window. The shift comes during Iran's multi-day state funeral for Ali Khamenei and as OPEC+ approved its fifth straight output hike of 188,000 b/d for August, leaving war-premium oil recovery capped while navigation risks and Lebanon friction persist as live pressure points.

How are US-Iran talks and the Islamabad MoU advancing?

  • Parliament Speaker Qalibaf stated on state media the MoU is "in implementation, hard but doable," with Iran securing language on ending war against "resistance" allies and preserving regional territorial integrity; talks paused during the Beirut Dahiyeh strike and resumed. The account is single-bloc Iranian but consistent across IRNA, Tasnim and Nournews.
  • Fars, citing Pakistan's The Nation, and Al-Arabiya point to a next round around 11 July in Islamabad on sanctions, the frozen $6bn and nuclear issues; neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed it and it remains Gulf/Pakistani single-bloc reporting.
  • IAEA chief Grossi said the agency still lacks access to Iran's nuclear sites, with resumption tied to talks, while Rosatom specialists are gradually returning to Bushehr; this is cross-outlet. Reuters reported the $300bn reconstruction fund, a described ceasefire pillar, will likely never materialise as Gulf sovereign funds are reluctant after Iranian strikes on them.

What does maritime intelligence show on Hormuz transits, fees and risks?

  • Kepler logged 19 transits Saturday with only one via the Oman lane; Windward, via Fars, said IRGC boats diverted six ships off the Omani corridor (two rerouted to Iran's lane, four back into the Gulf); Bloomberg confirmed at least eight ships turned back Friday-Saturday. The direction is cross-bloc corroborated by Western maritime intelligence and Iranian outlets.
  • UKMTO rates the threat "significant," citing IRGC warnings, drone activity, GNSS jamming and floating-mine risk; Polymarket prices roughly 70% odds Iran begins charging Hormuz fees by 31 October.
  • Ambassador Rahmani-Fazli in Beijing reiterated on-record Iran will levy "service fees," not tolls, post-MoU with Oman and special terms for friendly states. CENTCOM ended its search for the sailor lost in the 1 July MH-60S crash with no hostile indication; Sentinel-2 imagery showed USS Abraham Lincoln sailing south in the Arabian Sea with a Burke escort. Iranian outlets and a military source claimed 11 US tankers left the region — single-source and unverified.

How are oil markets positioned after OPEC+ and Hormuz signals?

  • OPEC+ agreed the additional 188,000 b/d for August amid falling prices and still-below-prewar Hormuz flows; Kepler/Vortexa data showed Gulf crude exports topped 10mb/d in June but remained ~40% under pre-war levels. Brent has stayed range-bound with the war premium largely gone, though Hormuz optionality on fees, jamming and mines remains a live tail.
  • JPMorgan cut its year-end gold call to $4,500; Bitcoin traded above $63,000. Iranian bank outages at Melli, Saderat, Tejarat and Tosee Saderat persisted, with SATNA and Chakavak systems down Sunday-Monday.

What is unfolding along the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire?

  • IDF demolitions hit Bint Jbeil, Beit Yahoun, Kounin, Al-Tiri, Kafr Tibnit and Houla; artillery struck Deir Siriane, Barashit and Qantara; airstrikes targeted Nabatieh al-Fawqa (two Hezbollah near Ali al-Taher tunnel) and a cell near Al-Aqida. Cross-bloc reporting frames the activity as escalating within the ceasefire.
  • Netanyahu denied on Fox as "fake news" claims Trump asked him not to hit Lebanon tunnels and said some Christian towns "asked to join" Israel; Rmeish's mayor and 15 Christian towns rejected it. IDF Chief of Staff Zamir at Beaufort demanded the Lebanese army clear Hezbollah and warned of "swift attack" if the ceasefire breaks.
  • Israeli reporting said Netanyahu held a cabinet session on withdrawal from two "pilot" areas near Nabatieh pending Lebanese army/CENTCOM readiness — weeks away; MTV reported a quiet army-Hezbollah understanding on Hezbollah withdrawal before army entry that Hezbollah rejected. Hezbollah MPs Fadlallah, Ali Ammar and Hajj Hassan called the framework a "surrender document." The Health Ministry toll since 2 March is 4,304 killed and 12,203 wounded.
  • CNN and Israeli media point to a possible 13 July Netanyahu-Trump meeting in Washington on Iran and Saudi normalisation; Maariv said late July and not firmly scheduled. US officials will press Israel on PA funds, settler violence and West Bank checkpoints, per Channel 13. Israel confirmed Iron Dome deployment to the UAE during the war (Transport Minister Regev, on-record), corroborating prior Maariv/Channel 14 reporting.

What marked day two of Iran's state funeral for Ali Khamenei?

  • Farewell events extended to 22:00 for crowds; the ground procession runs Monday 15 Tir at 06:00 (Damavand→Emam Hossein→Enghelab→Azadi→Lashgari), then Qom Tuesday, Najaf/Karbala Wednesday (ten Iraqi provinces closing) and Mashhad burial Thursday. Khuzestan declared Tuesday a holiday.
  • Mojtaba Khamenei was absent again from the prayer while three other sons attended; Iran Intl continues unverified "is Mojtaba alive?" amplification. A Mojtaba decree reappointed Mohseni-Ejei judiciary chief for five more years, cross-bloc confirmed.
  • State media and The Telegraph projected 20m in Tehran/35m total; CNN, AP, Reuters and The Guardian said hundreds of thousands; Middle East Spectator claimed 9-10m cumulative — no cross-bloc corroboration. Revenge messaging was institutionalised across Ejei, Qaani, Hatami and army/IRGC; Ejei vowed on-record to "prosecute" US/Israeli "war criminals" and said Iran will act "offensively" in diplomacy and the field.

What to watch next (24–72 hours)

  • Whether the NATO Ankara summit (7-8 July) announces a Hormuz freedom-of-navigation initiative or allied maritime mission and the readout from Trump's meetings with Zelensky and al-Sharaa.
  • Any concrete Iran-Oman "service fees" announcement or further daily drop in Omani-lane transits per Kepler/Windward.
  • Israeli cabinet decision on handing two Nabatieh-area pilot zones to the Lebanese army and whether strikes around Ali al-Taher intensify.
  • On-record US or Iranian confirmation of the reported ~11 July Islamabad round on sanctions, frozen $6bn and nuclear issues.
  • Actual crowd size versus projections and any Mojtaba Khamenei appearance during Monday's 15 Tir Tehran procession or Thursday's Mashhad burial.