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Iran • United States • Gulf • Lebanon • Iraq

US and Iran agree to halt mutual strikes around Hormuz, will meet in Doha on Tuesday

15 min read

Washington and Tehran agreed to halt mutual kinetic strikes after a third consecutive night of exchanges around the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks on targets in Kuwait and Bahrain, a senior US official told Axios with the New York Times and Reuters echoing the report. The sides will meet Tuesday in Doha with the agenda narrowed to the Hormuz dispute rather than the nuclear file. The Wall Street Journal had reported the Switzerland technical round cancelled amid fighting; the picture shifted overnight to paused then rescheduled. The move coincides with Israeli strikes on Hezbollah across south Lebanon including detonation of a large tunnel at Majdal Zoun, Nabih Berri declaring the Lebanon framework agreement dead-on-arrival, and Iraq confirming over 47 arrests in its anti-corruption sweep including at least 15 sitting MPs.

Did Washington and Tehran agree to halt mutual strikes?

  • A senior US official told Axios "We decided to stop all kinetic activity," with ships to move freely; Tuesday's Doha meeting will focus on the Hormuz dispute, a shift confirmed by NYT, Reuters and AlHadath. A US-IRGC military hotline was not yet operational as of Saturday.
  • Iran's Araghchi in Baghdad reiterated sole Iranian responsibility for Hormuz management under MoU Article 5 and pre-war throughput "within 30 days," warning third parties against interference on the coastal route; Iranian ground-forces artillery versus Kurdish separatists in Iraqi Kurdistan continued.
  • Iran's Gharibabadi held the first Iran-Oman "Hormuz Joint Committee" session in Muscat on coastal-state rights and future management under MoU Article 5; Al-Akhbar/Gulf framing indicates Muscat is not endorsing Iranian transit fees.

What were the key developments in the latest round of Hormuz strikes and assessments?

  • CENTCOM said US Navy and Air Force hit 10 Iranian targets in/around Hormuz including re-striking the Sirik comms tower plus sites at Qeshm and Bandar Lengeh in response to the drone strike on tanker MT Kiku; the IRGC claimed missile/drone strikes on 8 US targets at Ali al-Salem in Kuwait and the 5th Fleet in Bahrain.
  • A US official told CBS none of Iran's missiles/drones hit their targets Saturday night, some intercepted, no US casualties or damage; Bahrain's interior ministry confirmed building damage in Muharraq but no deaths. The IRGC "8 bases destroyed" claim is uncorroborated. Low-res Nour satellite imagery, Iranian-amplified, shows damage near Ahmad al-Jaber AB in Kuwait and the Sirik radar site — single-bloc, not independently geolocated.
  • Qatar's interior ministry confirmed one Qatari citizen killed and one Arab resident wounded by shrapnel from "military operations in the region," a boat found Sunday morning — the second confirmed civilian fatality this cycle, link to Iranian projectiles strongly implied but not officially confirmed. Saudi Arabia, GCC Secretary General, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar condemned Iran's strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait; Bahrain's defence minister said Tehran should stop making Gulf states a scapegoat.

How did the diplomatic and nuclear tracks shift amid internal Iranian rifts?

  • WSJ reported the Switzerland technical round cancelled due to fighting; Iran's Fazaeli, a Khamenei-office figure on state TV, confirmed Iran skipped Sunday's talks citing strikes and unmet conditions including unfrozen funds access. US officials later said talks "not cancelled" but moved to Doha Tuesday, Hormuz-focused; venue and scope remain fluid.
  • The 68 Experts members' nuclear-redline statement calling Trump and Netanyahu "mahdoor al-dam" was distanced by the Assembly secretariat as procedurally irregular — flagged by Iran Intl analysts as a public institutional rift and "crack in the wall of velayat-e faqih." Mojtaba Khamenei's Judiciary-Week message demanded domestic and international prosecution of US/Israeli "war criminals" over Minab/Lamerd strikes and Ali Khamenei's killing.
  • Kayhan's Shariatmadari urged the negotiating team to demand Trump be handed over for trial and refuse meeting him; a Fars "build the bomb" piece was disavowed by Fars as user-generated content and weaponised by Israeli channels — not Iranian policy. US Ambassador Waltz said Trump's patience is running out and threatened continued strikes on Hormuz infrastructure; Bloomberg noted unwinding decades of sanctions in a 60-day window is confusing for risk-averse firms.

What developments marked the Lebanon and Iraq tracks?

  • Berri told Al-Akhbar and Al-Madan the Washington framework consists of "dictates" ten times worse than 17 May 1983 that "will not pass and will not be implemented"; Amal ministers will oppose it in cabinet but not boycott the session, and he warned against dismissing army commander Hekal while confirming his channel to President Aoun is dead. Hezbollah's Qamati, Fadlallah and Nawaf Moussawi called the agreement "born dead" and reserved the right to defend; PM Salam and Berri warned against fitna.
  • Classified annex details from i24, Ch12 and Ch15 Israeli sources show no withdrawal timetable — conditions-based, only two pilot areas not expandable without Israeli sign-off, IDF freedom of action inside the Yellow Line, secrecy at Beirut's request; Axios reported the shared Israel-Lebanon aim to weaken Hezbollah/Iran while Haaretz noted "withdrawal" replaced by "repositioning." IDF says it has received no withdrawal order and identifies Froun, Ghandouriyeh and Zawtar al-Gharbiya as eventual pullback villages.
  • Hezbollah listed ≥10 ceasefire breaches on 28 June including airstrikes on Nabatieh al-Musallah and Maifadoun, drone strike on Froun, demolitions in Taybeh and Hadatha, and the >200m/25m-deep Majdal Zoun tunnel detonation ("Operation Final Verse," Iranian tech per IDF); IDF struck three Hezbollah command posts in retaliation. CENTCOM's Adm. Brad Cooper is due in Lebanon Monday; US proposal floated to train Lebanese forces for pilot zones, with LAF deployment to Zawtar al-Gharbiya and Froun reported within hours under his supervision. A rumour of 3,000 US Marines if Hezbollah triggers civil war remains uncorroborated Axis-channel messaging.
  • Iraq confirmed 47+ arrests in the US-coordinated anti-corruption purge including ≥15 sitting MPs — Muthanna al-Samarrai, Alia Nassif, Mohammed al-Karbouli, Hassan al-Khafaji, Hind al-Abbasi, Ziad al-Janabi and oil-ministry undersecretary Ali Maarij — triggered by al-Jumaili confessions; PM al-Zaidi called it "first phase" and vowed to continue. The campaign appears bipartisan, invoking Maliki, Abadi, bar association and al-Sistani's 2017 line; sectarian "coup" framing is not corroborated. Single-bloc claims that Federal Investigation exploited it to raid resistance-faction figures remain unverified. Iranian FM Araghchi visited Baghdad same day for funeral coordination and bilaterals, urging regional states not to allow territory to be used against Iran.

How did markets, Iran's domestic picture, US-Israel friction and weak signals develop?

  • Brent traded at ~$72.5, up only ~50¢, with the market treating Hormuz disruption as temporary; PortWatch showed ~50 tankers in June versus ~1,150 in December; UKMTO noted commercial traffic rising (48 ships 5-7 July window versus 70 Wednesday/54 Thursday). Iran macro deteriorated: p2p inflation 88.6% in Khordad, monthly 5.9%, annual 62%, lowest deciles hardest hit; Tehran bourse slid to ~5.034m after another ~40k intraday drop following Sunday's ~100k loss, rial at ₸172.2k/USD, gold >₸17m; unemployment 7.5%. Pezeshkian flagged fear of livelihood-driven unrest; cyber-disruption at four banks ongoing. Tehran-Dubai flights resume Monday; Hormozgan cargo logistics back to pre-war.
  • Politico reported Vance as symbol of cooling US-Israel ties; Israeli officials said they "naively" thought exempt from "America First." Ch12 claimed Vance willing to sacrifice Israeli interests and exposed Mossad Kurdish regime-change plans to Erdogan — single-bloc, treat cautiously. Netanyahu will raise opposition to US F-35 sale to Turkey; cabinet recognized Armenian Genocide, condemned by Turkey as Gaza deflection and by Azerbaijan. Likud primary 4 August; election date floated 27 October.
  • Flagged rumours include: US-Iran halt/Doha deal still single senior US official via Axios with Iranian side framing talks as conditional and unconfirmed by Tehran; Aoun asking Hekal to resign implied by Nawaf Moussawi/Berri but denied by MTV military source; 3,000 US Marines pledge only via Axis channels; IRGC covert cells in Iraq (Reuters-attributed via Axis) claiming 3-4 cells and ~7 drone attacks Apr 20–May 17 on Kuwait/Saudi/UAE, not independently verified; Pakistani strikes into Afghanistan with Pakistan claiming 25-29 militants killed versus Taliban claim of 36-38 civilians killed and 163 wounded — figures contested.

What to watch next (24–72 hours)

  • Whether Tuesday's Doha US-Iran meeting convenes and stays Hormuz-focused; a no-show or renewed ship strike on the Omani-coast route would signal re-escalation.
  • Iran-Oman Hormuz Joint Committee follow-through in Muscat and whether Oman resists Iranian sole-management or transit-fee framing under MoU Article 5.
  • Lebanese cabinet session on the framework: Berri/Amal opposition, two-thirds threshold, Aoun's moves, and any actual LAF deployment to Froun/Zawtar al-Gharbiya during Adm. Cooper's visit.
  • Iraq purge scope — whether it stays bipartisan/anti-corruption or visibly targets resistance factions, plus al-Zaidi's "next phases."
  • Khamenei funeral logistics (4-6 July) across Baghdad-Najaf-Karbala-Samarra plus Tehran and Mashhad, with foreign delegations arriving Friday and crowd-safety/security risks.
  • Any Iranian resumption of targeting commercial ships on the Omani-coast route after the explicit threat.