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Iran • United States • Gulf • Lebanon • Israel

US-Iran MoU visibly unravels after IRGC Hormuz strikes, waiver revocation and CENTCOM strikes on southern Iran

19 min read

The US–Iran Islamabad MoU has begun to visibly collapse after the IRGC struck three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz — the Qatari LNG Al Rekayyat, Saudi-flagged Wedyan and reported UAE Al Maryah, now cross-bloc corroborated — prompting Washington to revoke the oil-sanctions waiver at ~2050Z, which Iran's MFA called a flagrant violation of MoU Article 10. CENTCOM then launched its most significant strikes on southern Iran since the June ceasefire at ~2116Z, hitting Sirik, Qeshm and Bandar Abbas. Oil prices rose 5–6% as Gulf states condemned Iran en masse, while possible Iranian retaliation remains open over the next 24–72 hours during the Khamenei funeral in Iraq.

What triggered the collapse of the US–Iran MoU?

  • UKMTO logged three Hormuz vessel incidents within ~24h (building on the 6 Jul strike); the named vessels are now cross-bloc corroborated by naming states. Qatar summoned Iran's deputy ambassador; Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and GCC SG condemned "Iranian aggression." IRGC attribution is Gulf/Israeli/US-sourced; Iran neither confirms nor denies. Baqaei called claims "questionable" and reasserted Iran's right to manage Hormuz and charge service fees. JMIC/UKMTO raised the threat level to "Severe." Press TV said transits proceed per "Iran's arrangements" and any US provocation would draw "immediate, decisive response."
  • At ~2050Z the US revoked the oil waiver, replacing GL X with GL X1 (10-day wind-down, no new purchases from 7 Jul). Brent rose to $74–77 (+5–6%), WTI to ~$72. At ~2116Z CENTCOM struck with "a series of powerful strikes" to "impose heavy costs." Cross-bloc local/IRIB reporting confirmed 7+ explosions at Sirik (Tahruyi/Ziarat piers), ~6 near Qeshm and multiple at Bandar Abbas incl. Shahid Haqani port with large fire imagery. US officials (Axios/Reuters) said targets included air-defence, coastal surveillance, SAMs, anti-ship cruise-missile and drone-launch sites plus port facilities; strikes were "4–5x larger than 10 days ago" and "punishment not proportional." No civilian casualties per Hormozgan governorate; Iran said a commercial/fishing pier was hit with several fishermen injured (transferred to Minab). Kuwait and Bahrain parts reported power outages (cause unconfirmed — Iranian channels claimed jamming; Kuwait blamed transmission-line failures).
  • Trump reportedly ordered the strike from Ankara during the NATO summit (Axios, single US-source). US warships are reportedly on standby to re-impose a naval blockade if ordered (WSJ, single-source). Hegseth visits Israel Wednesday (CNN). Pezeshkian cut short his Najaf trip and returned to Tehran mid-strike (cross-source). The strikes themselves are cross-bloc corroborated (CENTCOM on-record + Iranian state media); battle-damage assessments, target lists and "4–5x" framing are US-sourced and unverified. An Iranian claim of shooting down an MQ-9/US drone is single-source Axis and unconfirmed. The war premium is now partially back; key uncertainties for traders are whether Iran closes/enforces Hormuz vs signalling, whether the US follows through on a blockade, how many more strike nights occur, and Saudi/UAE pipeline bypass scale (Reuters: Saudi Red Sea line to 2mb/d; UAE Fujairah/Dibba expansion), which caps but does not eliminate disruption risk. Pre-escalation Iran shipping-association estimates of freight normalising in 2–3 months are now stale.

What signals the MoU unravelling and links the Lebanon track to nuclear talks?

  • Iran MFA and deputy FM Gharibabadi said US strikes violate MoU Articles 1 and 2 while waiver revocation violates Article 10; Iran will take "decisive measures." Araghchi (on-record to Lebanese cleric Khatib) said no resumption of talks until the MoU's Lebanon clause is implemented and no final deal until Israel withdraws from Lebanon, formally chaining the Lebanon track to the nuclear file.
  • US officials (Reuters/Axios) said negotiators "continue to work in good faith for a final deal" and the MoU is "based entirely on Iran's performance." Mohsen Rezaei predicted the US will "tear up" the MoU as it did the JCPOA. Odds of a comprehensive deal have fallen sharply; the previously floated third Islamabad round (~14–15 Jul) is now in serious doubt.
  • Within the Lebanon "ceasefire," overnight IDF strikes/demolitions hit Deir Siryan (3 detonations), Beit Yahoun/Barachit and artillery struck Nabatieh al-Fawqa/Mayfadoun with flares over Ali al-Taher. Lebanese MoH cumulative since 2 Mar: 4,320 killed / 12,203 wounded. Aoun's Washington visit is confirmed for 21 Jul (LBCI/White House). Lebanon rejected moving talks to Rome, insisting on Washington (Al-Araby/MTV, dual-source) over fears of a bilateral Israel-Lebanon format sidelining the US. Walid Jumblatt called the framework "unilateral, Israeli-dictated, no withdrawal clause"; son Taymour echoed. The IDF released footage of alleged Hezbollah weapons found in a Tellousa bedroom. Macron met al-Sharaa in Damascus on ambassador exchange, asset-return and security cooperation; twin bombings occurred near his hotel (Syria MoI: "political," 10km from convoy).

What domestic signals emerged around the Khamenei funeral and what other frictions and flagged reports are there?

  • The body was flown to Najaf for an official reception with Pezeshkian, PM al-Zaidi, Qaani, Ammar Hakim, Qais Khazali and ex-PMs. Public processions are set for Najaf from ~06:00 and Karbala ~16:00 Wednesday; Iraq declared Wednesday a public holiday (KRG opted out). Crowd size claims remain contested (Iraqi officials/state: "millions"; IranIntl/monarchist: AI/inflated). Government spokeswoman Mohajerani and info-chief Ahmadnia publicly rebuked the "honorless" heckling of Araghchi/Pezeshkian as harmful to national unity — confirming the incidents were real and politically sensitive. Hardliners (Rasaei) called to missile-strike Trump's Ankara venue; Kayhan's Shariatmadari declared Trump "wajib al-qatl."
  • Trump is "inclined" to approve F-35 transfers to Turkey, praising it as "more loyal"; Netanyahu lobbied hard against, saying it would "wreck the Mideast balance" and calling Erdogan an "enemy" in closed session (CNN/Newsmax). Turkey MFA blasted Israeli "disinformation." Trump also revived Greenland threats and floated pulling US troops from Europe. A CNN investigation (three sources) reported US commanders bypassed stale-intel warnings and a strike hit a Minab school killing ~168 children and 14 teachers — single-outlet reporting that would materially damage the US narrative if it holds.
  • Flagged unverified reports (do not trade on these): Iran shot down a US MQ-9/cruise missile over Bandar Abbas (single-source Axis, unconfirmed); possible targeted strike on a van in Bandar Abbas (MES + Iranian opposition channels, unverified; MES flags possible misidentification); Pakistani B737 cargo plane down in Arabian Sea (~290km W of Karachi) — Pakistan CAA cited navigation fault while Iranian/IRIB channels floated "US mistakenly hit it" (no credible support, treat as noise). All senior Iranian officials were in Iraq tonight (MES) — factually true, but any "US can decapitate at will" framing is speculative.

What to watch next (24–72 hours)

  • Iranian retaliation via missiles/drones on US regional bases (Bahrain/Kuwait/Jordan/UAE) — whether it waits until after the Karbala/Mashhad funerals (Thursday burial) or acts sooner.
  • Whether the US continues strikes tonight/tomorrow and moves to a Hormuz naval blockade — the single biggest oil-price catalyst.
  • Confirmation of any IRGC Navy order to halt all Hormuz traffic "until further notice" (MES source) — enforcement would spike premiums sharply.
  • Signals from Hegseth's Wednesday Israel visit on F-35/Turkey policy and any joint US-Israel Iran coordination or posture.
  • Any formal Iranian MoU suspension/withdrawal or US re-designation moves; whether the previously floated 14–15 Jul Islamabad round survives.