Latest Intelligence

Today's Briefings

Curated analysis on the most consequential developments in global conflict zones.

Iran • United States • Gulf • Yemen • Saudi Arabia

Houthi missile kills 12 at Riyadh airport as Trump weighs joining strikes

A Houthi ballistic missile struck Terminal 3 of Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport at about 15:00 local on 10 Oct, killing 12 and injuring 309, including one American, according to Saudi Arabia's General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA). AFP, Reuters, NYT and the State Department all carry the toll. Trump said the US "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis. That would open a Saudi-Yemeni front alongside Washington's war with Iran as Hormuz attacks escalate.

4 min read
Read briefing →

United States • Gulf • Yemen • Saudi Arabia

IRGC widens maritime campaign beyond Hormuz after striking LPG carrier NV Sunshine

The IRGC Navy says it struck the Vietnam-flagged LPG carrier NV Sunshine south of Hormuz and declared that ships on "unauthorised routes" will be pursued anywhere in the region. This is the first explicit widening of its maritime campaign, and it targets the bypass routes Washington cites as proof that flows are recovering. In parallel, the Yemen-Saudi war escalated: 3 people were killed at Riyadh's King Khalid airport, and UN envoy Grundberg called it "full-scale war."

5 min read
Read briefing →

Iran • United States • Israel

US drafts three-day Iran strike plan despite Trump's midterm pledge

President Trump said on Truth Social he will not attack Iran before the 3 Nov midterms and called talks "productive." The same day, the NYT, WSJ and Barak Ravid of Axios reported a drafted three-day strike campaign, more naval assets heading to the region, and Israel being told operations are possible "within three weeks." Tehran will answer the US counter-proposal "within a few days." Brent settled up 4% at $104.28, according to Reuters.

7 min read
Read briefing →